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    Informational content about prediction markets only. Not financial, investment, or betting advice. Prediction markets involve risk.

    News & Analysis

    Prediction market analysis from Genius editors and contributors

    Featured
    politicsDeep Analysis

    2026 Balance of Power: The House Is Priced, the Senate Is a Coin Flip

    2026 Balance of Power odds resolve November 3 on a $19.1M two-book board. The House looks settled; the Senate is a dead heat. Live Kalshi and Polymarket prices.

    GS
    Genius Staff
    ·August 12, 2026·16d ago

    Latest

    15 articles
    politicsDeep
    US-Iran War Odds: Traders Aren't Buying Trump's 'Good Talks'
    US-Iran odds: traders pay more for a US invasion before 2027 than for a nuclear deal by September 30, on a $48.6M board. War is priced to outlast the talks.
    Genius Staff·Jul 27
    politicsDeep
    Next Israeli PM Odds: The Market Has Eisenkot Passing Netanyahu
    Next Israeli PM odds: Eisenkot leads Netanyahu across Kalshi and Polymarket on $26.4M of volume, priced on coalition math ahead of October 2026 elections.
    Genius Staff·Jul 9
    politicsDeep
    Brazil 2026 Election: The Books Agree on Lula, Not on His Challenger
    Brazil 2026 Election odds: Lula leads a 19-candidate field on a $112.7M two-book board, but Kalshi and Polymarket split on Flavio Bolsonaro. Vote October 4.
    Genius Staff·Jul 6

    All Articles

    11 more
    2028 Presidential Election Odds: Vance Leads, But No One Breaks Away
    politicsGenius Staff·Jul 1
    Trump Greenland Odds: Yes Is the Fade Into 2027, and Denmark Is Why
    politicsGenius Staff·Jun 28
    Brazil 2026 Election Odds: Flávio Bolsonaro Is Lula's Only Real Chase
    politicsGenius Staff·Jun 28
    Venezuela Leadership 2026: Maduro Is the Market's Verdict on a Board of 18
    politicsGenius Staff·Jun 28
    French Presidential Election Odds: Bardella Leads a Wide-Open Field
    politicsGenius Staff·Jun 28
    US Iran War 2027: The Market Prices an Invasion, Not the Headlines
    politicsGenius Staff·Jun 28
    2026 Senate Control Odds: Why Republicans Are Favored While the Polls Say Otherwise
    politicsGenius Staff·Jun 28
    2026 House Control: Democrats Are the Heavy Favorite, but the Senate Tells a Different Story
    politicsGenius Staff·Jun 28
    2028 Presidential Winning Party: Democrats Lead, but the Base Rate Is Doing the Heavy Lifting
    politicsGenius Staff·Jun 28
    2028 Democratic Nominee Odds: Newsom Leads a Wide-Open 46-Name Field
    politicsGenius Staff·Jun 28
    2028 Republican Nominee Odds: Vance Leads, Rubio Is the Cross-Platform Spread
    politicsGenius Staff·Jun 28
    Top Markets
    POLI2028 US Presidential Election$758.5MSPORSpain vs Argentina$354.0MSPORFIFA World Cup Winner 2026$321.1MSPORNorway vs England$261.1MSPORFrance vs England$237.3MSPORFrance vs Spain$225.0MSPORFormula 1 World Drivers' Champion 2026$209.8MSPOREngland vs Argentina$204.5M
    Editor's Picks
    1Bengals Win Total 2026: The Ladder Is Priced for 17 Burrow Games2Commanders Win Total 2026: Washington's Turnover Year Was the Floor3Jets Win Total 2026: Five Wins Is the Number, Not Six4Falcons Win Total 2026: Atlanta Lost 16 Sacks and Gained a Quarterback Competition5Rams Win Total 2026: The Floor Is the Rung Nobody Priced
    Latest from Eric Pauly
    EP
    Eric Pauly
    Founder, Prediction Genius
    Saints Win Total 2026: Buy Both Tails, Not the 8.4
    NFC East 2026: Dallas and Philadelphia Up Top, Washington Is the Fade
    AFC East 2026: Buffalo Is the Chalk I Do Not Trust, New England Is the Value
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