Venezuela Leadership 2026: Maduro Is the Market's Verdict on a Board of 18

Nicolas Maduro is priced to finish 2026 in power. The Venezuela Leadership 2026 market puts him at 76c on a simple cross-platform average, 72c on Kalshi and 81c on Polymarket, with $95M in combined volume behind the question. That is the highest implied probability on a board of 18 named figures, and the gap to the field is enormous. The second name on the board, Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, sits at 17c. Everyone else is in single digits.

This market is not a referendum on legitimacy. It resolves on a single factual question: who holds power in Venezuela at the end of 2026. Traders are pricing continuity, and they are pricing it heavily.

Venezuela Leadership 2026 Odds Today

The board concentrates almost all of its weight on three names, then scatters the rest across a long tail of officials, opposition figures, and US political names that traders treat as lottery tickets.

The top line carries a 9c cross-platform spread, with Polymarket more confident in Maduro at 81c than Kalshi at 72c. On a market this liquid, a 9c gap on the favorite is the most actionable number on the board. The implied probabilities do not sum to 100c across the named field because each contract is a separate yes/no question and traders are leaving room for an unnamed or surprise outcome.

Venezuela Leadership 2026 Favorite: Why Maduro Sits at 76c

Maduro has been the central figure in Venezuelan power since 2013, and the market reads the status quo as durable. He was inaugurated for a third term in January 2025 following the disputed July 2024 election, and he has retained control of the state apparatus, the military command, and the courts through 2025. The 76c average is the market's shorthand for that grip.

The 9c platform spread is the detail worth watching. Polymarket traders are paying 81c, treating Maduro's continuation as closer to a lock. Kalshi traders hold him at 72c, leaving more room for a disruption scenario. With $95M of combined volume, that divergence is not a thin-book artifact. Someone is wrong, and the resolution of this market over the next several months will settle which book read the risk correctly.

The 24c that Maduro is not priced to capture is the entire premise of every other contract on the board. That residual is split between an internal succession, an externally driven removal, and the opposition. None of those scenarios commands more than 17c on its own, and the drop from the 17c runner-up to the 4c third name is the steepest single step on the board.

Venezuela Leadership 2026 Runner-Up: Delcy Rodriguez at 17c

Delcy Rodriguez is the only non-Maduro name with double-digit pricing. As executive vice president, she is the constitutional successor and the figure traders default to in any internal-transition scenario. Her contract trades at 22c on Kalshi and 12c on Polymarket, a 10c spread that is the second-widest divergence on the board.

That spread tells a specific story. The Rodriguez contract is effectively the market's price on a controlled, inside-the-government handoff. Kalshi traders rate that path at better than 1-in-5; Polymarket traders cut it to roughly 1-in-8. The two books disagree most sharply exactly where the favorite's residual probability would flow first. For a trader with accounts on both platforms, the Maduro and Rodriguez contracts are the two cleanest cross-platform reads on the entire board.

Venezuela Leadership 2026 Opposition: Gonzalez and Machado in Single Digits

The opposition names that dominated international coverage of the 2024 election are priced as long shots here. Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, recognized by several governments as the winner of that vote, trades at 8c on Kalshi and just 1c on Polymarket, an average of 4c. Maria Corina Machado, the opposition leader barred from the 2024 ballot, sits at 3c across both platforms. Juan Guaido, who claimed an interim presidency from 2019, trades at 3c on Kalshi and has no Polymarket line.

The distance between the opposition's international standing and its market price is the single most important thing this board communicates. Recognition abroad is not the resolution criterion. Holding power inside Venezuela on December 31, 2026 is. The market prices the opposition's path to that specific outcome in low single digits, and the prices have stayed there through 2025.

Venezuela Leadership 2026 Long Tail: US Names and the Caine Contract

The bottom of the board is a list of US political and military figures, each priced at 0.5c to 1.5c. Donald Trump, Marco Rubio, Pete Hegseth, Stephen Miller, Richard Grenell, and General Dan Caine all carry a contract. These trade at 3c or less on Kalshi and 0c on Polymarket. They are pure lottery tickets, the market's way of pricing an externally imposed outcome where a US figure or US-installed administrator ends 2026 nominally in charge.

The aggregate weight of that entire US-names cluster is a few cents. Traders are not pricing direct foreign administration of Venezuela as a meaningful path. The internal-Venezuela names, Maduro plus Rodriguez plus the smaller Chavista officials such as Jorge Rodriguez at 2c and Diosdado Cabello at 1.5c, soak up the overwhelming majority of the probability mass. The Polymarket book is even more dismissive of the US tail, pricing nearly every one of those contracts at 0c against Kalshi's 1c to 3c.

When the Venezuela Leadership 2026 Market Resolves

The market resolves on December 31, 2026. The resolution question is who holds power in Venezuela at that date, not who won any prior election and not who is recognized by foreign governments. Each named contract is an independent yes/no settlement, so a contract pays out only if that specific figure is the leader at the resolution window. The market is listed on both Kalshi (under the KXVENEZUELALEADER series) and Polymarket, with the combined book carrying $95M in volume.

Key Venezuela Leadership 2026 Catalysts

Military command loyalty: Any visible crack in the armed forces leadership is the fastest route to repricing Maduro's 76c down and the Rodriguez 17c up.

Internal succession signals: A formal elevation of Delcy Rodriguez or a health event involving Maduro would move the Rodriguez contract before any other.

External pressure escalation: Sanctions, recognition shifts, or a US posture change would flow first into the long-tail US-names contracts that currently sit at 1c.

Opposition mobilization: A renewed Machado or Gonzalez campaign with on-the-ground traction is the only catalyst that lifts the sub-5c opposition contracts.

Cross-platform spread: The 9c Maduro gap and 10c Rodriguez gap between Kalshi and Polymarket are the cleanest arbitrage signals on the board; watch which side converges.

Related Venezuela Leadership 2026 Markets

Venezuela sits inside a wider cluster of regime-and-leadership contracts that trade on the same continuity-versus-removal logic. For a comparable test of whether an entrenched government survives external pressure, see the Iran Regime Collapse Before 2027 market and Will the U.S. Invade Iran Before 2027? market. For a contested-succession board where the favorite is far less dominant, compare the Reza Pahlavi to Lead Iran in 2026 odds and the 2026 Brazilian Presidential Election odds. Browse more politics prediction markets or read more Genius Staff editorial.