Brazil's presidential ballot locked on August 15, 2026, with 13 registered tickets, and the 2026 Brazil presidential election board narrowed with it: incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, with 18 other listed names splitting what is left. It is one of the largest international political contracts anywhere, carrying roughly $135.5M in cumulative volume across 20 outcomes, though close to 65% of that money traded on candidates who never filed. The live board above ranks current cross-platform prices. The first round is October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25 if nobody clears 50%.
Brazil's presidential field closed at 7pm on August 15, 2026, and the 2026 Brazil presidential election board closed with it. Thirteen tickets registered with the Superior Electoral Court, the campaign opened the next morning, and a race that spent two years priced as an open question about which figure would carry the right became a two-name contest. Incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro now hold effectively all of the board's priced probability between them, with the other 18 listed names splitting a low-single-digit remainder. The live board above carries the current cross-platform prices. This page covers who is actually on the ballot, what moves the line between now and October, and how the contract settles.
Lula is 80 years old, running under the PT banner for a fourth term, with Vice President Geraldo Alckmin of the PSB again on the ticket. The case the board is pricing is the ordinary incumbent case: the largest national party organization in the country, a Northeast base that has never abandoned him, and the machinery of a sitting government.
The polling is closer than the price. Datafolha interviewed 2,058 voters between August 18 and August 20, 2026, the first national survey after the campaign formally opened, and found Lula at 39% to Flávio Bolsonaro's 33% in the first round. The runoff simulation put Lula at 47% and Bolsonaro at 43%, a four-point gap against a two-point margin of error. Against Datafolha's July 24 read of 40% to 32%, Bolsonaro gained a point and Lula shed one.
So the market is meaningfully more confident in Lula than the polling is, and the two-round structure is what reconciles the two. Lula's price on the companion Brazil runoff qualification market sits far above his price on this board, because reaching the second round and surviving it are separate bets. The distance between those two numbers is the entire second-round risk this contract carries, and Datafolha's 47 to 43 is the best available estimate of it.
The PL made it official on July 25, 2026, at a convention in São Paulo's Pacaembu stadium, with Argentine President Javier Milei in attendance. Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, the senator and eldest son, took the nomination and later named federal deputy Alfredo Gaspar as his running mate. The platform is built on security: designating criminal factions as narcoterrorist organizations, building five new maximum-security prisons, and pursuing amnesty for his father.
That last plank is the whole reason this slot existed. Jair Bolsonaro was sentenced to 27 years and 3 months for his role in the coup plot, the Supreme Federal Court has closed the case to further appeal, and he is serving that sentence in closed regime while ineligible to hold office. For most of this market's life, his ballot access was the single largest open variable on the board. It is no longer a variable. It is a settled fact, and the board repriced around it.
Consolidation cost the right its most-traded alternative. SĂŁo Paulo Governor TarcĂsio de Freitas, who carried more cumulative volume here than any other name in the field, stood down and filed for reelection in SĂŁo Paulo instead. Michelle Bolsonaro and Eduardo Bolsonaro, both live succession trades through 2025, never registered. Flávio inherited the base without a primary, and he inherited it having never run a national campaign.
Three names registered to the right of the incumbent without the PL machine behind them, and the board treats all three as long shots rather than spoilers.
Ronaldo Caiado, 76, the Goiás governor, runs on the PSD ticket with party president Gilberto Kassab. His program is the most fiscally specific in the field: 25% budget cuts across all three branches of government, terrorist designation for criminal factions, and domestic processing of Brazil's critical minerals. He runs explicitly against polarization, and his polling has stalled in single digits with real strength confined to Goiás.
Romeu Zema of Novo, the Minas Gerais governor, occupies the fiscal-orthodoxy lane and carries a state base rather than a national one. Pablo Marçal registered on the PRTB ticket.
Renan Santos, 42, is the interesting one. A co-founder of the Movimento Brasil Livre, he built the MissĂŁo party and runs with Aroldo Medina on federal security intervention, fiscal adjustment, and replacing Bolsa FamĂlia with paid work programs. His own framing is that he sits to the right of Flávio Bolsonaro. Roughly 65% of voters do not recognize his name, which is both his ceiling and the reason his contract prices as a recognition bet rather than a policy one. He is the only candidate outside the top two the board prices clearly above noise.
In a two-round system, a third candidate's job is not to win. It is to hold enough first-round vote to change who reaches October 25. The board does not price any of the three to do it.
This is the most misread number on the page. The board carries roughly $135.5M in cumulative volume, one of the largest international political contracts listed anywhere, but that money did not go where the race went. About $84.4M of the $130.6M traded across named contender contracts, close to 65%, sits on people who never filed a candidacy.
TarcĂsio de Freitas alone absorbed $14.3M, more than Lula's $9.5M or Flávio Bolsonaro's $9.6M. Eduardo Bolsonaro took $10.4M and Michelle Bolsonaro $10.2M. Jair Bolsonaro's own contract absorbed $6.2M before his conviction became final. None of those four names appear on the October ballot.
The practical consequence is simple: sorting this board by volume returns the argument the market was having in 2025, not the ballot voters received in 2026. Lifetime volume is a record of where conviction went, not a ranking of who can win. Rank by price.
The platform split matters for a different reason. Polymarket carries about $127.4M of the cumulative volume against roughly $3.2M on Kalshi, so Polymarket is where this race is genuinely priced and Kalshi is the thinner confirming book. Both list the leading contenders and the board above compares them side by side, but a Kalshi quote on a low-probability name moves on far less money than the Polymarket line beside it.
The first round is October 4, 2026. A candidate who clears 50% of valid votes wins outright; otherwise the top two advance to a runoff on October 25, 2026, and the market resolves to the winner of that second round. Nearly 159 million Brazilians aged 16 and over are registered, including more than 900,000 abroad, a 32% increase in the overseas electorate since 2022. The same ballot fills 54 Senate seats and all 513 seats in the Chamber of Deputies. The winner is inaugurated on January 5, 2027. The Superior Electoral Court is the source of truth, and if no result is known by June 30, 2027, the market resolves to Other.
Brazil lists as three separate contracts and reading them together beats reading any one alone: this winner board, the Brazil runoff qualification odds covering which candidates reach the second round, and the Brazil first-round winner odds covering who leads on October 4. Our editorial breakdown of the head-to-head sits at Brazil 2026 Lula vs Bolsonaro analysis. In the region, the Venezuela leadership market is the other nine-figure Latin American political contract, and the 2027 French presidential election odds carry the closest comparable multi-candidate field. The full slate sits in the politics prediction markets hub.
Resolves to the candidate who wins Brazil's 2026 presidential election. The first round is held October 4, 2026; a candidate who takes more than 50% of valid votes wins outright, and otherwise the top two finishers advance to a runoff on October 25, 2026, with the market resolving to the winner of that second round. The winning contender's contract pays $1 per share and every other contender resolves to $0. Settlement follows the official result declared by Brazil's Superior Electoral Court, the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, with credible consensus reporting used where the official count is not yet final. If no winner is known by June 30, 2027, the market resolves to Other. The winner is inaugurated January 5, 2027.
The live board above ranks every listed contender across Kalshi and Polymarket. Since the August 15, 2026 registration deadline the priced probability has concentrated almost entirely on incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, with the remaining 18 listed names splitting a low-single-digit remainder.
The first round is October 4, 2026. If no candidate clears 50% of valid votes, the top two advance to a runoff on October 25, 2026, and the market resolves to the winner of that second round once the Superior Electoral Court confirms it. The winner is inaugurated January 5, 2027.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket list the race, but the money is lopsided: Polymarket carries roughly $127.4M of the cumulative volume against about $3.2M on Kalshi. Polymarket is the book actually setting the price and Kalshi is the thinner confirming quote.
Lula is the favorite on both books as of August 24, 2026, and Flávio Bolsonaro is the only other candidate priced above single digits. Polling is tighter than the board: Datafolha had the runoff at 47% to 43% in its August 18 to August 20 survey.
The free radio and TV advertising window from August 28 to October 1 is the first national test of a Bolsonaro ticket that has never run for president. After that, watch whether Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema pull enough first-round vote to change which two candidates reach October 25.