Golden State Valkyries vs Portland Fire Prediction Market Odds, August 30, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶State | -4.5 53% | O 161.5 41% | 62%49% | 62% Kalshi |
â–¶Fire | +4.5 47% | U 161.5 59% | 35% | 35% Kalshi |
Golden State is the 67c favorite on Kalshi against Portland at 35c, and the price is being asked to carry a lot: the Valkyries own the second-best record in the WNBA at 28-11 but have four rotation players out, including leading scorer Gabby Williams. Portland is 16-23 and missing its own leading scorer, Carla Leite (15.9 points, 6.3 assists). Tip is 7:00 PM ET at Moda Center in Portland. The board carries roughly $42.3K in lifetime volume, with $26.3K of it on the Golden State moneyline leg.
Golden State is the 67c favorite on a board where both teams are missing their leading scorer. ESPN's matchup predictor puts the Valkyries at 83.5%, roughly 16 points of implied probability above where Kalshi has the moneyline, and that gap is the live question on this page. The moneyline has held overnight while the spread and the total have both come down, which is the market keeping its read on who wins and walking back its read on how comfortably.
Valkyries vs Fire Market Context
Golden State arrives at 28-11, the second-best record in the WNBA behind Minnesota (31-8), and on a three-game winning streak built entirely on defense: 80-66 at Minnesota on August 24, 89-64 at Connecticut on August 26, and 79-60 at New York on August 27. The Valkyries allow 75.6 points per game, the fewest in the league by a margin of nearly eight points over Minnesota (83.3), and they score 82.5. That plus-6.9 differential is the reason a road team is laying a mid-single-digit number here.
The complication is availability. ESPN lists four Golden State players out, including Gabby Williams, the team's leading scorer at 14.3 points per game, along with Cecilia Zandalasini, Janelle Salaun and Iliana Rupert. That leaves Veronica Burton (5.8 assists) and Kiah Stokes (5.5 rebounds) as the two remaining statistical leaders on the roster, and it thins a rotation that has been winning by holding opponents in the 60s.
Portland is 16-23, ninth in the league by record and 15 games back of Minnesota. The Fire won their most recent game 101-83 at Atlanta on August 28, snapping a three-game skid that ran 82-79 at Toronto on August 21, 105-100 at home to Washington on August 23, and 96-78 at Dallas on August 25. Portland scores 87.0 per game and allows 91.2, the third-most in the league, which is the profile of a team that plays fast and does not get stops. Carla Leite, who leads the Fire at 15.9 points and 6.3 assists, is listed out, as are Frieda Buhner, Luisa Geiselsoder and Sarah Ashlee Barker, with Karlie Samuelson day-to-day. Emily Engstler leads Portland on the glass at 5.6 rebounds.
The season series favors Golden State 1-0. The Valkyries won the first meeting 95-77 on June 2, and these teams meet twice more on September 18 and September 22, so this is the middle of a four-game sequence rather than a one-off. Golden State is 13-6 on the road; Portland is 8-11 at Moda Center.
Valkyries vs Fire Spread, Total and Line Movement
The moneyline trades on Kalshi only, at 67c for Golden State and 35c for Portland, a 102c book that carries about 2c of vig. Polymarket's participation on this board is on the derivative rows rather than the winner: it posts Golden State -5.5 at 49c and the match total. The two books line up where they overlap. Kalshi has Golden State -4.5 at 53c and -7.5 at 41c, so a 49c price one point further out on Polymarket sits exactly where the Kalshi ladder implies it should.
That Kalshi spread ladder reads Golden State -1.5 at 62c, -4.5 at 53c (the most-traded rung at about $1.6K lifetime), -7.5 at 41c, -10.5 at 31c, -13.5 at 24c and -16.5 at 17c. The Portland side runs -1.5 at 35c, -3.5 at 30c, -6.5 at 22c and -9.5 at 14c. The market's true number is therefore a shade under five, which is a modest ask against a team giving up 91.2 a night.
The total is the one genuinely cross-platform row here. Over 158.5 points is priced at 48c on Kalshi and 48c on Polymarket, a verified pairing with matching prices. The Kalshi ladder around it runs Over 149.5 at 70c, Over 155.5 at 57c, Over 161.5 at 41c and Over 167.5 at 29c. Note how far that sits below the naive sum of the two season scoring averages (82.5 plus 87.0 equals 169.5). The market is pricing in the absences on both sides and the fact that Golden State's last three opponents scored 66, 64 and 60.
The snapshot series on this board covers roughly five hours, from late on August 29 into the early hours of August 30, so scope any movement read to that window. Across 26 captures the Golden State moneyline opened at 66c, touched 65c once and closed the window at 67c, and Portland printed 35c on all 17 of its captures. The spread and the total told a different story over the same hours: Golden State -4.5 fell from 56c to 53c across 11 captures, and Over 158.5 fell from 53c to 48c on Polymarket across 14 captures with Kalshi corroborating at 48c. Win probability steady, margin and pace both trimmed.
Player props are listed but essentially untraded. Polymarket carries 16 prop rows across both rosters, and only one of them has a posted price: Veronica Burton assists over 6.5 at 47c, on zero lifetime volume. Burton averages 5.8 assists, so a coin-flip price on a number a full assist above her season rate is the kind of row that gets cheaper once real volume arrives.
When the Valkyries vs Fire Market Resolves
The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the Golden State at Portland game at Moda Center in Portland, Oregon, scheduled for 7:00 PM ET on August 30, 2026 per ESPN's scoreboard, with the broadcast on WNBA League Pass, KPIX+ and Fox 12 Plus. Winning-side contracts pay $1 per share and the losing side settles at $0. Spread contracts settle against the final margin (Golden State -4.5 pays only on a winning margin of five or more), and total contracts settle against combined final points with overtime included. Kalshi and Polymarket both settle from the official final box score once the WNBA declares the game final; a postponement pushes settlement to the rescheduled date, and a canceled game voids under each platform's own rules.
Key Valkyries vs Fire Catalysts
- Golden State availability: four Valkyries are listed out, including leading scorer Gabby Williams (14.3 points per game).
- Portland availability: Carla Leite (15.9 points, 6.3 assists) is out, along with three teammates, with Karlie Samuelson day-to-day.
- The model gap: ESPN's matchup predictor has Golden State at 83.5% against a 67c market price.
- The spread is where the money moved: Golden State -4.5 went from 56c to 53c overnight while the moneyline held.
- Defense versus pace: Golden State allows a league-low 75.6 points; Portland allows 91.2, third-most in the league.
- Seeding stake: Golden State is three games back of Minnesota for the top record, and the Valkyries win total market tracks the same run.
Related Valkyries vs Fire Markets
Golden State's 28-11 run and league-best defense are the inputs that matter most to the 2026 WNBA champion board, where the top seed decides the path through October. Portland's side of this game feeds the Fire playoff market, which at 15 games back is closer to a math problem than a race, and the Fire win total market prices what is left of the expansion season. Minnesota's afternoon game against Atlanta is priced on the same slate at the Lynx vs Dream board, and every WNBA game and future is listed side by side on the WNBA league hub.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves to the team that wins the Golden State Valkyries at Portland Fire game at Moda Center in Portland, Oregon, scheduled for 7:00 PM ET on August 30, 2026. Winning-side moneyline contracts pay $1 per share and the losing side settles at $0. Spread contracts settle against the final margin, so Golden State -4.5 pays only on a Valkyries win by five or more points, and total contracts settle against combined final points including any overtime. Kalshi and Polymarket both settle from the official WNBA final box score once the game is declared final. A postponement moves settlement to the rescheduled date and a canceled game voids under each platform's own rules.
Key Factors
- Golden State has four players listed out, including leading scorer Gabby Williams (14.3 points per game)
- Portland is without Carla Leite (15.9 points, 6.3 assists) plus three teammates, with Karlie Samuelson day-to-day
- ESPN's matchup predictor has Golden State at 83.5% against a 67c Kalshi market price
- Golden State -4.5 moved from 56c to 53c overnight while the moneyline held at 66c to 67c
- Golden State allows a league-low 75.6 points per game; Portland allows 91.2, third-most in the WNBA
- Over 158.5 points is the only verified cross-platform row on the board, at 48c on both Kalshi and Polymarket
What are the current Valkyries vs Fire odds?
As of the morning of August 30, 2026, Kalshi prices Golden State at 67c and Portland at 35c on the moneyline, a 102c book. The primary spread is Golden State -4.5 at 53c on Kalshi and -5.5 at 49c on Polymarket, and the match total of 158.5 points trades at 48c on both platforms.
Who is favored in Valkyries vs Fire and by how much?
Golden State is favored at 67c, an implied win probability of about 67%. ESPN's matchup predictor is more aggressive at 83.5%, and the Valkyries beat Portland 95-77 in the first meeting of the season on June 2.
Where can I trade the Valkyries vs Fire market?
The moneyline trades on Kalshi under the KXWNBAGAME series. Polymarket lists the derivative rows on this game, specifically the Golden State -5.5 spread and the match total, which is why the total is the one row with a verified price on both platforms.
When does the Valkyries vs Fire market resolve?
The game tips at 7:00 PM ET on August 30, 2026 at Moda Center in Portland, and contracts settle from the official final box score once the WNBA declares the game final, typically within a few hours of the final buzzer.
What should I watch before Valkyries vs Fire tips off?
Watch the injury report. Golden State has four players out including Gabby Williams and Portland is missing Carla Leite, so a late addition or return on either side is the most likely thing to move a spread that already fell from 56c to 53c overnight.