Pirates vs Dodgers Prediction Market Odds, August 22, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Pirates | -2.5 — | O 2.5 — | 0%0% | — |
Dodgers | +2.5 — | U 2.5 — | 100%100% | 100% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Pittsburgh Pirates | -2.5 — | O 2.5 — | 0%0% | — |
Los Angeles Dodgers | +2.5 — | U 2.5 — | 100%100% | 100% Kalshi |
The Dodgers (78-51) are the 70c favorite over the Pirates (63-67) at Dodger Stadium, priced identically on Kalshi and Polymarket and within a couple of points of the DraftKings number of -266. Tarik Skubal (2.85 ERA) faces Jared Jones (4.78 ERA), a nearly two-run ERA gap that the market has turned into a 7.5-run game total and a Los Angeles run line trading at 52c. The board carries roughly $95K in cumulative cross-platform volume, and the live prices above update through first pitch at 7:15 PM ET on August 22, 2026.
The Los Angeles Dodgers (78-51) host the Pittsburgh Pirates (63-67) at Dodger Stadium at 7:15 PM ET on August 22, 2026, and this is one of the most lopsided boards on the MLB slate. Los Angeles trades at 70c on both Kalshi and Polymarket, an implied 70% win probability that sits within a couple of points of the DraftKings price of -266 (72.7% implied). The game board carries roughly $95K in cumulative cross-platform volume, and the Kalshi winner contract on the Dodgers alone accounts for about $37K of it. Tarik Skubal (7-7, 2.85 ERA) starts for Los Angeles against Jared Jones (2-5, 4.78 ERA), and that gap is most of the reason the price sits where it does.
Pirates vs Dodgers Market Context
Los Angeles took the series opener 5-4 on August 21 and enters this game on a four-game win streak. The Dodgers are 38-26 at home, two games behind Milwaukee (80-49) for the best record in the National League, and nine games clear of San Diego (69-60) in the NL West. Pittsburgh is 29-35 on the road and 17.5 games back in the National League table, fourth in the NL Central behind Milwaukee, Chicago, and St. Louis. The Pirates are playing for development reps and draft position at this point in the calendar, and the board prices them accordingly.
The line has been close to static overnight. On Kalshi, the Dodgers winner contract opened at 71c at 8:11 PM ET on August 21 and sits at 70c as of 7:08 AM ET on August 22, trading in a one-cent band across 93 captures. Polymarket held 70c flat across 37 captures over the same window, and the Pittsburgh side ticked from 30c to 31c on Kalshi. That is the full extent of the snapshot series available before first pitch, so this is an overnight read, not a full-day one.
Cross-platform agreement here is unusually tight. The two books are level at 70c on the Dodgers and 31c on the Pirates, and the widest gap on any liquid line is a single cent: the run line has Los Angeles (-1.5) at 52c on Kalshi and 51c on Polymarket, and the game total has over 7.5 runs at 50c on Kalshi and 49c on Polymarket. Those differences are inside the minimum tick, so there is no cross-platform disagreement worth acting on tonight. The run line is the heaviest single contract on the board at roughly $18K, which is a signal that the real trading interest is in the margin rather than the winner.
Pirates vs Dodgers Pitching Matchup: Skubal vs Jones
Skubal's 2.85 ERA against Jones's 4.78 is a nearly two-run separation, and the strikeout ladders show how the market reads it. Kalshi prices Skubal at 93c for 5-plus strikeouts, 78c for 7-plus, 61c for 8-plus, 47c for 9-plus, and 33c for 10-plus, which puts the implied median right at eight to nine. Jones prices at 88c for 3-plus, 75c for 4-plus, 54c for 5-plus, and 37c for 6-plus, an implied median of five. The market is pricing roughly three and a half extra strikeouts for the Los Angeles starter.
Team totals tell the same story from the run side. The Dodgers are 65c to score more than 3.5 runs and 49c to score more than 4.5, which brackets their implied output right around four and a half. Pittsburgh sits at 72c for more than 1.5 runs, 54c for more than 2.5, and 40c for more than 3.5, implying about three. Add those and you land on the 7.5-run game total that both platforms and DraftKings agree on, with over 7.5 priced at a near coin flip (50c Kalshi, 49c Polymarket). A run in the first inning trades at 46c on Kalshi and 45c on Polymarket.
The hitter props are concentrated on the Los Angeles side. Shohei Ohtani is 28c to hit a home run, 68c for at least one hit, and 49c for two-plus total bases. Mookie Betts is 68c for a hit and 17c for a home run, and Freddie Freeman is 69c for a hit and 15c for a home run. Oneil Cruz carries Pittsburgh's only meaningful prop interest at 54c for a hit and 14c for a home run. Ohtani's home run contract has drawn about $950 in volume, the most of any player prop on this board.
When the Pirates vs Dodgers Market Resolves
The winner market resolves to the team that wins the game at Dodger Stadium on August 22, 2026, first pitch scheduled for 7:15 PM ET on FOX and MLB.TV. Kalshi and Polymarket both settle on the official final score, including extra innings, once the game is called final by Major League Baseball. The run line settles on the final margin (Los Angeles at -1.5 needs a win by two or more), and the game total settles on combined runs scored by both teams. Suspended, postponed, or shortened games follow each platform's own rulebook, which generally voids contracts that do not reach an official result on the scheduled date.
Key Pirates vs Dodgers Catalysts
Skubal's workload: the 8-plus strikeout contract at 61c and the 10-plus at 33c are the cleanest read on how deep the market expects him to go.
Jones's command: a 4.78 ERA against a Dodgers lineup implied for four and a half runs is the single largest source of variance on the board.
The run line over the moneyline: Los Angeles (-1.5) at 52c carries roughly $18K, more than any other contract here, so the margin is where the money actually sits.
Cross-platform convergence: Kalshi and Polymarket are level at 70c on the Dodgers with no gap larger than one cent anywhere on the primary lines.
Total at 7.5: over 7.5 runs at 50c on Kalshi and 49c on Polymarket matches the sportsbook number exactly, so any move before first pitch is a genuine signal rather than a pricing artifact.
Lineup card: Ohtani, Betts, and Freeman are all priced between 68c and 69c to record a hit, and any late scratch moves both the team total and the winner price.
Related Pirates vs Dodgers Markets
The Dodgers' nine-game NL West lead is priced on the 2026 NL West winner board, and their October path runs through the 2026 NL pennant market and the 2026 World Series market. Ohtani's counting stats feed the 2026 NL MVP board. For every contract tied to either club, including futures and the rest of this series, see the Los Angeles Dodgers hub and the Pittsburgh Pirates hub. The full slate of games pricing today is on MLB games today, and the league-wide board lives at MLB prediction markets.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves to the team that wins the game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium on August 22, 2026, first pitch scheduled for 7:15 PM ET. Kalshi and Polymarket settle the winner contract on the official Major League Baseball final score, extra innings included, once the game is declared final. Each winning team contract pays $1 per share and the losing side settles at $0. The run line settles on the final margin, with Los Angeles at -1.5 requiring a win by two runs or more, and the game total settles on combined runs scored by both clubs. If the game is postponed, suspended, or shortened before it becomes an official game, contracts void or roll under each platform-specific rulebook rather than settling on a partial score.
Key Factors
- Tarik Skubal strikeout ladder (8-plus at 61c, 10-plus at 33c) as the read on his expected length
- Jared Jones and a 4.78 ERA against a Dodgers lineup implied for roughly 4.5 runs
- Dodgers run line at -1.5 (52c Kalshi, 51c Polymarket) holding the heaviest volume on the board at about $18K
- Kalshi and Polymarket level at 70c with no primary line more than one cent apart
- Game total of 7.5 runs, with over 7.5 at 50c Kalshi and 49c Polymarket, matching the sportsbook number
- Late lineup changes to Ohtani, Betts, or Freeman, all priced 68c to 69c for a hit
What are the current Pirates vs Dodgers odds?
As of the morning of August 22, 2026, the Los Angeles Dodgers trade at 70c on both Kalshi and Polymarket and the Pittsburgh Pirates trade at 31c on both. That is an implied 70% win probability for Los Angeles, close to the DraftKings price of -266.
Who is favored in Pirates vs Dodgers?
The Dodgers, at 70c and an implied 70% win probability. Los Angeles is 78-51 overall and 38-26 at home, while Pittsburgh is 63-67 overall and 29-35 on the road.
When does the Pirates vs Dodgers market resolve?
It resolves when the game goes final at Dodger Stadium on August 22, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 PM ET, with the broadcast on FOX and MLB.TV.
Where can I trade the Pirates vs Dodgers market?
Both Kalshi and Polymarket list this game, and the board above shows every contract from each platform side by side. Combined cumulative volume on the game is roughly $95K.
What is the Pirates vs Dodgers run line and total?
The Dodgers at -1.5 trade at 52c on Kalshi and 51c on Polymarket, the largest single contract on the board at about $18K. The game total is 7.5 runs, with over 7.5 at 50c on Kalshi and 49c on Polymarket.
What should I watch before Pirates vs Dodgers resolves?
The lineup card and the strikeout market. Skubal at 61c for 8-plus strikeouts and Ohtani at 28c for a home run are the two contracts most likely to move on pregame news between now and 7:15 PM ET.