Politics8 ThresholdsFutures

2026 Israel Election

Current Leader

177%

Gadi Eizenkot at 55%(+22pt lead)

$656K volume8 thresholdsPolymarket, Kalshi60d until resolution

Market ForecastChance by threshold

Market line25· the 50% crossing

Chance of reaching each threshold · the curve crosses 50% at the market's central line

Threshold Board8 thresholds

ThresholdChanceYesNo

>17Kalshi

94%94%6%

<20Polymarket

16%16%84%

>20Kalshi

89%89%11%

>23Kalshi

70%70%30%

>26lineKalshi

43%43%57%

>29Kalshi

23%23%77%

>32Kalshi

12%12%88%

>35Kalshi

14%14%86%

Analysis

Analysis content will be generated by the pipeline.

Timeline

Market Created

Aug 29

We Are Here

Aug 29

Resolution

Oct 27

⚠Informational content only. Not financial or betting advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss.

Politics8 ThresholdsFutures

2026 Israel Election

Current Leader

177%

Gadi Eizenkot at 55%(+22pt lead)

$656K volume8 thresholdsPolymarket, Kalshi60d until resolution

Market ForecastChance by threshold

Market line25· the 50% crossing

Chance of reaching each threshold · the curve crosses 50% at the market's central line

Threshold Board8 thresholds

ThresholdChanceYesNo

>17Kalshi

94%94%6%

<20Polymarket

16%16%84%

>20Kalshi

89%89%11%

>23Kalshi

70%70%30%

>26lineKalshi

43%43%57%

>29Kalshi

23%23%77%

>32Kalshi

12%12%88%

>35Kalshi

14%14%86%

Analysis

Analysis content will be generated by the pipeline.

Timeline

Market Created

Aug 29

We Are Here

Aug 29

Resolution

Oct 27

⚠Informational content only. Not financial or betting advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss.